行政院環境保護署 環保專案成果報告查詢系統

EPA-95-FA11-03-D093

095

8,200 千元

2006/05/25

2006/12/31

張艮輝

空保處

呂昌祺

雲林科技大學 環境安全衛生系

化學物質管理

容許增量限值、管制策略、有效性評估、臭氧

allowed increment limit, control strategy, effective assessment, ozone

余泰毅、陳王琨、蔡俊鴻、賴信志、莊秉潔、林文印、林沛練

張能復

鍾欣伶

05-534-2601#4417

hsing@airlab.yuntech.edu.tw

依據空氣污染源依據空氣污染防制法第六條(適用於屬二、三級防制區的行政區)，或者是空污法第八條(必須施行總量管制)，在其申請「新設污染源設置許可証」，或已有許可證但工廠製程異動、以致其排放的污染物種類或是排放量達一定規模以上者，必須採行兩項空氣污染防制措施。然而，與空氣品質管理有極大關連的「容許增量限值管制工作」，自實施以來，已經發現有許多在制度上的問題。所以各縣市在核發許可証之前，應就其空氣品質監測結果，先研判那些污染物或前驅物分屬於二或三級防制區所必須加嚴的管制程序與標準。依據空氣污染防制法第七條，這項適法性研析工作，本來屬於各縣市每二年依法必須研修訂的「空氣品質維護改善計劃」(簡稱SIP，State Implementation Plan)的重要內容。然而，實況是這些計劃書缺少較為嚴謹的核備程序，以致各縣市的計劃書並沒有發揮預期空氣品質維護改善策略規劃之功能。本計畫運用空氣品質模式，並配合空氣品質及氣象觀測資料，模擬評估現行及未來不同管制情境對策對空氣品質之長期影響與衝擊之定量分析。本年度完成之工作項目及相關成果依據計畫目標順序分別敘述如下： （一）有關『空氣污染防制法』第六條，推動「容許增量限值」制度及「相關行政支援」部份 1. 協助縣市環保局模式模擬之技術審查：已針對全國各地環保局與中技社的許可申請彙報資料，篩選58件的申請個案。其中，有44件較完整的資料回覆。因此，實際進行審查的案例共計44件，有進行模式模擬的製程總計有12件，故本計劃對此12件製程進行模式重製。本年度另外選出前10大排放量的堆置場程序，並針對其中5件堆置場程序，進行粒狀污染物濃度之模擬，瞭解這些堆置場會對附近地區空氣品質可能造成的影響。 2. 評估容許增量限值管制策略之實際效益：本計劃針對法定空氣污染物的歷年監測結果進行分析，且將臺灣地區分成北中南東四個地理區域。在排放量方面，建立一個定性的排放量指標，來推估歷年排放量的趨勢。另外，本計劃使用CALPUFF模式來進行容許增量限值的相關分析，藉以評估管制措施實施的適當性。 3. 辦理模式模擬認可審查作業：已建置完成模式認可所需使用之文件及資料庫且部份資料亦完成更新，並由主管機關完成發佈作業；目前GTx軌跡模式已完成認可作業，後續將加強宣導及訓練作業。 4. 空氣品質模式背景資料庫之蒐集、整理與分析：本計畫將2004及2005兩年的ISC氣象資料輸入檔整理上網，故目前在ISC3模式氣象資料部分，已經有2000~2005年總計六年的氣象資料可供國內各單位使用。另外，目前所彙整的資料是2006年8月15日前通過環境影響評估的固定污染源排放增量資料，並將彙整統計後之排放源增量資料與基準年(2000年)所增加的排放量相比較，之後將持續彙整環境影響評估案件之排放源資料至2010年。 5. 空氣品質模式支援中心網站之維護更新及諮詢服務：截至2006年8月底止註冊成為會員的人數為1,236人，平均數為每日265位訪客，大部份都以參閱、下載資料庫以及操作線上模擬系統為主，會員多來自學校研究生、顧問公司、及本中心工作人員。空氣品質模式支援討論區可區分為十類，包含空氣品質模式、氣象資料與模式、排放源與排放模式、空氣品質觀測、教育訓練、策略評估、科技發展與國際交流、模式支援中心站務、測試區以及問題與答覆；討論區中文章總數為312篇，主題總數為129篇。 （二）有關『空氣污染防制法』第七條，模擬評估空品區及縣市現行及未來不同管制對策對空氣品質之長期影響與衝擊之定量分析部份 1. 建立並評析至少六個月之長期氣象模擬資料庫：已完成利用MM5模擬2003年5、6、8、9、10及11等六個月之長期氣象模擬資料庫，並配合空氣品質模式的長程傳輸討論，已完成個案之軌跡計算與分析。以氣象局所屬測站為標準，蒐集台灣觀測資料進行比對，並利用空氣品質管制區域分區進行模式結果驗證；另外，也完成改寫RAWINS原始碼以及重組台灣觀測資料的格式，並完成測試比對。 2. 評估北部、中部空氣品質區之空氣資源涵容度：評估北部、中部空氣污染防制區之空氣資源涵容度評估結果顯示，以NOx：NMHC = 1：4進行減量，要達到2011年目標，中部地區NOx及NMHC兩者削減量各約是2000年基準排放量的2.5%、5.6%，亦即NOx允許排放量約103,375 T/yr，NMHC允許排放量約178,500 T/yr；北部地區則各須削減至2000年基準量之5.0%、15.3%，亦即NOx允許排放量約109,345 T/yr，NMHC允許排放量約126,980 T/yr。 3. 收集分析北部、中部縣市空氣污染防制計畫之管制對策及其減量：已完成蒐集並解析北部空品區、中部空品空氣品質管制相關計畫管制策略、法規修訂及減量資料。北部空品區VOCs管制後排放情形，至民國100年VOCs排放量仍以面源及點源所佔比例最高，且面源排放較點源為高，為達空品目標仍需持續推動汙染源減量。中部空品區管制後排放情形同北部空品區，至民國100年VOCs排放量仍以面源及點源所佔比例最高，且面源排放較點源為高，為達空品目標仍需持續推動汙染源減量。 4. 模擬分析縣市管制對策達成空氣品質改善之有效性：以六個月期程進行模擬分析北部、中部縣市管制對策達成空氣品質改善之有效性，分析結果顯示：以2011年管制前後臭氧污染發生率(O3>120ppb)相比較，北部空品區之臭氧污染改善比例達90%左右。中部空品區臭氧污染改善比例約為70%。雲嘉南空品區臭氧污染改善比例約為80%。高屏空品區臭氧污染改善比例則約50%。 5. 模擬評估新設置大型污染源對不同地區空氣品質之影響：若以六個月模擬期程之臭氧污染(O3>120ppb)空間時數暴露量結果來看，於2000至2005年期間，北部空品區之臭氧污染空間暴露量比例約增加24%，而中部、雲嘉南及高屏空品區則分別增加16%、55%、19%；將四空品區合計，則約增加23%。於2000至2023年六個月期程模擬結果中，則四空品區之臭氧污染(O3>120ppb)空間時數暴露量分別增加103%、67%、186%、79%。由此可知，至2023年時EIA的排放量對各空品區之空氣品質影響較大，其中又以雲嘉南空品區之影響最為嚴重。 6. 綜合北部、中部、雲嘉南、高屏四個我國臭氧污染較嚴重之空品區模擬六個月之結果，境外傳輸影響我國月平均濃度約為8.5 ppb，影響每日尖峰濃度平均為8.8 ppb，影響臭氧事件日之平均濃度為8.3 ppb，具相當高度之一致性，東亞人為源排放影響我國臭氧濃度約在8 ppb 左右，顯示我國污染仍以本地排放量所致為主。境外傳輸影響我國以5月及6月最嚴重，影響約10 ppb，8月幾乎無影響，10月則影響約為5 ppb，11月則下降到1.6 ppb。而境外傳輸影響我國區域而言，以北部平均10 ppb為最嚴重，由北向南遞減，中部空品區及雲嘉南為9.0 ppb及 8.0 ppb，高屏空品區則為7.6 ppb。

容許增量限值、管制策略、有效性評估、臭氧

KM-99977680-1.pdf

20MB

[期末報告]公開完整版

2007/4/1 上午 12:00:00

Air quality models are playing vital roles in tasks concerning the air quality planning and regulatory compliance checking. As the content of air quality models becomes more sophisticated, both in their scientific mechanisms and in their data input, a successful job requires different aspect in supports and specialties. Taiwan EPA urged by this requirement has established the Air Quality Modeling Center (TAQMC), which recruits expertise and data resources in different institutes over the Island and is connected over the Internet platform to carry out its missions. In this project, it is intended to layout the organization and operation of TAQMC. As an answer to please from the air pollution community, TAQMC’s operation is aimed to serve the community needs in three major areas, namely the expertise in advanced air pollution modeling, the data acquisition needs in model input and the computational platform needs. Furthermore, to meet the continuous challenge of both the scientific and legal advancement in the community, TAQMC also serves as the forum for new ideas and cooperative endeavors for future Air Quality. TAQMC supported in this project has been inaugurated for over four years. Six universities have been involved in hardware, software and data bank supporting tasks. Through the web site contents and online information retrieving services, TAQMC has achieved its minimum function required by its goals. Both the reduction in task duplications and improvement in service and job quality are widely noticed by the community. The prospective of a final dynamic air quality managing system through the daily operation of TAQMC is the consensus among the common participating members. According to the sixth and seventh terms in the air pollution control act, the sources applied to emit or change pollutant, which the quantity is larger than a certain value, have to demonstrate that their impact on air quality is below the tolerance values by air quality model. Therefore, air quality model become a necessary tool to determine the permit of stationary source. Besides, air quality model traditionally can be used on air quality management plan, air quality impact assessment, and state implement plan, and et al. The project of air quality modeling center is designed to support various air quality models in needs of regulation, administration, and development. The results are shown briefly as follows. 1. Assisted the technical examinations of air quality modeling for Environmental Protection Bureau of local government. On the basis of emission permit database, established by China Technical Consultants, this project screened 58 applications and completed 44 cases with detailed information. Twelve cases those performed air quality modeling were reproduced for confirming the accuracy of related information and air pollutants’ concentrations. This year also selected the first ten storages piles with particulate emissions simulated, and cited five cases to simulate the particulate concentration over neighborhoods receptors. 2. Assess the benefits of the “Allowable incremental limits” strategy. This project analyzed the time series data of criteria air pollutants over four distinct regions and examined the benefits of the “Allowable incremental limits” strategy. This study also created an emission index for estimating the trend of emission over varied regions with air pollutant’s concentration and meteorological parameters. Besides, this research utilized CALPUFF model to evaluate the appropriate emission scales of air pollutants. 3. Examination of air quality modeling proof. The required documents and database were established and updated. The GTx trajectory model was validated, and further training and announce of this air quality model would be continued. 4. Collection and analysis of emission, meteorological, and ambient air database for air quality model. The formatted meteorological databases for ISC3 model were uploaded at web site of TAQMC from 2000 to 2006. The databases of emission, meteorological and ambient air quality for year 2000 and 2003 were gathered. The incremental emissions data of stationary sources those have passed EIA and will precede development before year 2010 were collected and compared with base year (year 2000). 5. Maintained, updated and consulted services of TAQMC. Until now, the members of TAQMC were 1236 persons, average guests were 265 persons per days. The major tasks for visiting TAQMC were reading, downloading and performing on-line simulations. The discussing fields were categoried into ten types as air quality models, meteorological models, emission models, air quality obsearvation, educations, strategies evaluation, technique development and international exchange, routine tasks, tested and FAQs. The total articles and topics were 312 and 129 for discussing fields. 6. Using air quality model to evaluate the amount of allow emission in the middle part and the north part air basins. The results can provide the reduce emission that to improve the air quality in these basins in Taiwan. 7. Evaluation of long-term air quality impact assessment of 2011 new sources using air quality model in Northern、Central、Kao-Kao-Ping and Yun-Chia-Nan air basins. The results can be used for making and adjustment control strategies to improve ozone air quality in Taiwan. 8. The impact of the emissions allowed by Environmental impact assessment (EIA) of future (2023) new source on air quality have been evaluated and quantified by long-term simulation of six months in 2003 using photochemical grid model. The results show that the high ozone (greater than 120ppb) days of North, Central, Yun-chia-nan, and Kao-pin air basins might be increased 103%, 67%, 186%, and 79% respectively. It is implied that total emission allowed by EIA might result in serious impact on future air quality without furthermore control strategy. 9. During 6 months simulation period, the influences of East Asia anthropogenic emission on ozone concentration are about 8.5 ppb for monthly average and 8.3 ppb for period average of high ozone days (ozone > 120 ppb).

allowed increment limit, control strategy, effective assessment, ozone